Less emphatic tone on Ukraine. Focus on 5% GDP defense spending. Trump influence.
On June 24-25, 2025, NATO summit in The Hague. Significant tone change from 2022-2024 summits.
Final declaration: Ukraine mentioned only twice (vs dozens of times in previous summits). No explicit condemnation of Russian war.
Focus: New defense spending threshold at 5% of GDP (from 2%). Aid linked to this commitment.
Context: Trump administration pushes for reduced US involvement in Europe.
Second round. Agreement on 6000 bodies of soldiers.
On June 2, 2025, second round Istanbul negotiations. Atmosphere more tense than first round.
Participants: Same delegations (Lavrov, Kuleba), Erdogan.
Results:
- Agreement to exchange 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers (3,000 per side)
- No progress on political issues
Russian proposal (not accepted):
- "Memorandum with conditions": Ukraine recognizes de facto Russian control over occupied territories in exchange for "pause" in hostilities
- No troop withdrawal
- No permanent NATO membership
- "Special status" for Crimea and Donbass
Ukraine response: Total rejection. Kuleba: "This is not peace proposal, it's disguised surrender proposal".
Ukrainian counterproposal (not accepted):
- Russian withdrawal to 1991 borders (including Crimea)
- Binding international security guarantees
- War reparations
- War crimes tribunal
Russian response: "Unrealistic and provocative".
Dialogue breakdown: After 8 hours of failed negotiations, delegations leave Istanbul without agreement for third round.
Why it failed: Irreconcilable positions. Russia wants to freeze territorial conquests, Ukraine wants restoration of territorial integrity. No external pressure sufficient for compromise.
Current situation: War continues. Negotiations suspended sine die.
First direct negotiations since 2022. Agreement on 1000 prisoners.
On May 16, 2025, first direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations since April 2022. Location: Istanbul, Turkish mediation.
Context: After 3 years of war, international pressures (including from Trump administration) push for dialogue. War stalemated, both sides exhausted.
Participants: Russian (Lavrov) and Ukrainian (Kuleba) delegations, Erdogan present as mediator.
Discussions:
- Prisoner exchange
- Humanitarian corridors
- Possible partial ceasefire
- Status of occupied territories (no agreement)
Concrete results:
- Agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners (500 per side)
- Opening Mariupol-Zaporizhzhia humanitarian corridor
- Agreement for second round of negotiations
Unresolved issues:
- Russian troop withdrawal (Ukraine demands, Russia refuses)
- Crimea and Donbass status
- Security guarantees for Ukraine
- Reconstruction and reparations
Atmosphere: Tense but professional. First step after years. Both sides cautiously optimistic.
Assessment: Limited but significant progress. Demonstrates dialogue is possible. Concrete humanitarian results. But on political issues, distance remains enormous.
US support for reconstruction with access to mineral resources.
Stati Uniti e Ucraina firmano accordo cooperazione per ricostruzione post-conflitto
Participants: USA, Ukraine. US private sector invited.
Proposal: US support for reconstruction with access to Ukrainian mineral resources (lithium, rare earths). Private investments guaranteed by US government.
Outcome: Criticism: "Selling national resources". Debate in Ukraine about conditions too favorable to USA.
Why it failed: Economic agreement, not peace. War continues.
EU Commission transfers first €3 billion of loan backed by Russian assets.
On January 10, 2025, European Commission makes first disbursement of €3 billion to Ukraine as part of €35 billion MFA loan.
Schedule: Monthly payments of €1 billion between March and November 2025, final €6.1 billion in December.
Total expected: €35 billion by end of 2025.
With 518 votes in favor, approved EU loan to be repaid with Russian assets profits.
On October 23, 2024, European Parliament approves with 518 votes in favor, 56 against and 61 abstentions new macro-financial assistance (MFA) for Ukraine. Loan up to €35 billion as part of G7 $50 billion package.
Vote: 518 in favor, 56 against, 61 abstentions. Large majority.
€35 billion loan: Part of G7 $50 billion package. Repayment guaranteed by future profits generated from €210 billion frozen Russian assets in EU.
Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism (ULCM): Legal structure to manage loan. Coordination with USA, UK, Canada, Japan.
Repayment deadline: Loan has maturity up to 45 years. Assumes Russian assets will remain frozen for decades.
Fund use: State budget, critical infrastructure reconstruction, humanitarian support, reforms.
First disbursements: January 2025 first €3 billion. Plan: €35 billion by end 2025.
17 Global South countries. Based on China-Brazil plan.
On September 27, 2024, at UN General Assembly, "Friends for Peace" group launched on China-Brazil initiative.
Participants: 17 Global South countries: Brazil, China, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, Colombia, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Uganda, Zambia, etc.
Stated objective: "Create conditions for direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine based on mutual respect".
6+6 Proposal:
- No military escalation
- No nuclear weapons use
- Civilian and prisoner protection
- Nuclear plant safety
- Humanitarian corridors
- Peace conference with Russia AND Ukraine (key point)
Differences from Zelensky Formula:
- Does NOT mention Russian troop withdrawal
- Does NOT mention specific territorial integrity
- Calls for "negotiated solution considering realities on ground"
Ukraine reaction: Zelensky harshly rejects. "Friends for Peace who accept occupation are not friends of peace but accomplices to aggression".
Western reaction: USA and EU criticize. "Proposal legitimizes territorial conquest".
Support: Russia welcomes positively. "Finally realistic approach".
Assessment: Global South attempt to present alternative to Zelensky Formula. Reflects frustration with Western "all or nothing" approach. But de facto favors Russia by freezing status quo with 20% of Ukraine occupied. Further divides international community.
23 countries sign bilateral security agreements with Ukraine (bridge to NATO).
As of July 18, 2024, 23 countries have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine, launched by G7 in 2023.
Countries included: USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and others.
Content: Commitment to provide weapons, training, intelligence sharing, economic support. Assistance in case of future Russian aggression.
Objective: "Bridge" towards NATO membership.
"Irreversible" path to NATO. €40 billion/year pledge. F-16s arriving.
On July 10-11, 2024, NATO 75th anniversary summit. Declared Ukraine's path to NATO as "irreversible". Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance: minimum €40 billion in 2024. NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) created. F-16 arrival announced. 23 of 32 NATO countries reach 2% military spending.
92 nations. Russia not invited. Communiqué signed by 89 states.
On June 15-16, 2024, peace summit in Switzerland (Bürgenstock Resort). Largest international conference on Ukraine since war began.
Participants: 92 countries + international organizations. Zelensky present. Russia NOT invited. China, Brazil absent.
Organization: Switzerland host, promoted by Ukraine. Based on Zelensky's "Peace Formula" (10 points): Russian troop withdrawal, war crimes tribunal, reparations, nuclear security, freedom of navigation, prisoner exchange.
Final declaration: Signed by 80 of 92 countries. Main points:
- Ukraine's territorial integrity according to UN Charter and international principles
- Nuclear plant safety (Zaporizhzhia under Ukrainian control)
- Food security (Black Sea navigation freedom)
- "All for all" prisoner exchange and return of deported children
Who didn't sign: Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil (observer), UAE. Reason: want Russia at table.
Result: Partial consensus. No concrete commitments. Plan for second summit with Russia (never organized).
Criticism: "Too little, too late". Russia's absence makes everything symbolic. Global South countries skeptical.
Turning point: First time majority of countries formally recognize peace must be based on Russian withdrawal and Ukrainian territorial integrity.
G7 approves $50 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets profits.
On June 14, 2024, at G7 in Italy, leaders approve Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loan: $50 billion loan for Ukraine, to be repaid with future profits from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Breakdown: US $20bn, EU $20bn, UK/Canada/Japan $10bn total.
The €210 billion in EU (mainly Euroclear, Belgium) generates approximately €3 billion/year in interest.
6 points. Criticized by Ukraine as destructive.
Cina e Brasile pubblicano proposta congiunta per pace in Ucraina
Participants: China, Brazil (Lula)
Proposal: 6 points: dialogue, no escalation, no nuclear weapons, peace conference with Russia and Ukraine.
Outcome: Ukraine rejects: doesn't mention Russian troop withdrawal. West skeptical.
Why it failed: Too vague. Favors status quo with Russia occupying 20% of Ukraine.
EU regulation: 99.7% net profits from Russian assets go to Ukraine (90% weapons).
On May 21, 2024, EU Council adopts Regulation (EU) 2024/1469 obliging central securities depositories (CSDs) to transfer 99.7% of net profits generated from frozen Russian assets.
Distribution: 90% to European Peace Facility (weapons), 10% to other EU programs.
First transfer: €1.5 billion in July 2024. Target: €15-20 billion by 2027.
EU approves €50 billion for Ukraine 2024-2027 (loans and grants).
On February 1, 2024, after weeks of negotiations (and overcoming Hungarian veto), EU Council approves Ukraine Facility: €50 billion package for 2024-2027 period.
Composition: €33 billion loans, €17 billion grants.
Purpose: State budget, reforms, reconstruction, economic modernization.
83 countries. Fourth meeting.
On January 14-15, 2024, third Jeddah format meeting in Davos during World Economic Forum.
Participants: 83 countries (vs 65 Malta, 40 Jeddah). Participation growing but Russia still absent. China sends minor delegation.
Context: Meeting during WEF allows Zelensky to speak directly to global economic leaders. Focus: obtain economic commitments for reconstruction.
Discussions: Same pattern. Western countries reiterate support for territorial integrity. Global South demands "realism" and Russia inclusion.
Novelty: More emphasis on post-conflict reconstruction. Ukraine presents estimates: $486 billion needed. Requests private investment guarantees.
Key divergences:
- When to involve Russia: West says "after withdrawal", Global South says "immediately"
- Reconstruction: Who pays? Confiscate Russian assets (West) vs international loans (others)
- Guarantees: What to prevent future Russian aggression?
Result: Non-binding declaration on "commitment to peace according to UN Charter principles". Same vague language as previous meetings.
Critical assessment: Jeddah format (now 3 meetings) produces no progress. Useful but repetitive dialogue. Without Russia or without pressure on Russia, remains diplomatic theater. Ukraine frustrated: international coalition exists, but doesn't translate into concrete actions.
65 states. Third preparatory meeting.
On October 28-29, 2023, second Jeddah format meeting in Malta. Continuation of diplomatic efforts for Zelensky Peace Formula.
Participants: National security advisers from 65+ countries (vs 40 in Jeddah). China again present. Russia absent.
Objective: Increase international consensus on Zelensky's 10 points, prepare global summit.
Discussion: Focus on 3 less controversial points: nuclear security (Zaporizhzhia), food security (Black Sea grain), prisoner exchange.
Positions:
- West: Russian withdrawal prerequisite for peace
- China/India: Negotiations with Russia necessary
- Arab countries: Offer neutral mediation
- South Africa/Brazil: Criticize "unilateral approach"
Result: Consensus on need for "just and lasting peace". No agreement on how to achieve it.
Progress from Jeddah: More countries (65 vs 40), but still no concrete commitments. West/Global South divide widens.
Assessment: Diplomatically useful (shows many countries want peace), but substantially sterile. Without Russia nothing can be concluded. Format becomes repetitive: same debate, same positions, zero results.
40 countries including China. Working groups Peace Formula.
On August 5-6, 2023, meeting in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on Ukrainian initiative. Attempt to build international coalition for Zelensky's Peace Formula.
Participants: National security advisers from ~40 countries including USA, China, India, EU, Arab, African countries. Russia NOT invited.
Organization: Saudi Arabia host, Ukraine promoter. Focus: obtain Global South support for Zelensky's 10 points.
Zelensky Formula (10 points):
1. Nuclear and radiation safety
2. Food security
3. Energy security
4. Release of prisoners and deportees
5. Ukrainian territorial integrity
6. Russian troop withdrawal
7. Justice (war crimes tribunal)
8. Ecocide prevention
9. Escalation prevention
10. War end confirmation
Discussions: Western countries support territorial integrity. China and India call for "realism" - impossible to ignore Russia. Arab countries neutral, interested in mediation.
Final declaration: None. Too many divisions. Consensus only on: "war must end by peaceful means respecting UN Charter".
Follow-up: Second meeting Malta (October 2023), third Davos (January 2024). Same dynamic: West vs Global South.
Assessment: Ukraine seeks international legitimacy for its formula. Partial success: China and India participation important. But no concrete commitments. Without Russia, remains diplomatic exercise.
NATO-Ukraine Council created. MAP requirement for Ukrainian membership removed.
On July 11-12, 2023, NATO summit in Vilnius. Creation of NATO-Ukraine Council where Ukraine and allies sit as equals. Membership Action Plan (MAP) requirement removed, making membership path from two steps to one. CAP transformed into multi-year program.
NATO-Ukraine Council: Permanent body where Ukraine sits as equal with 31 NATO allies. Consensus decisions.
MAP removed: Membership Action Plan no longer required. Membership path simplified from 2 to 1 step. When "conditions permit" (not specified).
Multi-Year Assistance Programme: CAP transformed into multi-year commitment. Includes: weapons, training, NATO standard interoperability, democratic reforms.
Zelensky frustration: Wanted clear invitation. Obtained "irreversible" language but no timeline.
First security advisers meeting Peace Formula.
Meeting a Copenhagen tra consiglieri Danimarca, Ucraina e altri paesi
Participants: National security advisers from 40+ countries
Proposal: Discuss Zelensky peace formula (10 points). Prepare ground for future summit.
Outcome: Consensus on general principles. No commitments. Russia absent.
Why it failed: Technical meeting without Russia. No decision-making power.
7 African countries propose 10-point plan. Rejected by both sides.
On June 16-17, 2023, African delegation of 7 presidents visits Kyiv and Moscow with African peace plan.
Participants: Presidents of South Africa (Ramaphosa), Senegal (Sall), Zambia (Hichilema), Comoros (Assoumani), Uganda, Egypt, Republic of Congo. Absent: Kenya president.
10-point plan:
1. Sovereignty and territorial integrity according to UN Charter
2. Immediate de-escalation
3. Guaranteed security for all
4. Free humanitarian aid
5. Prisoner exchange
6. Repatriation of deported children
7. Alleviate global food crisis
8. Sanctions: dialogue
9. African peace process
10. Post-conflict reconstruction
In Kyiv (June 16): Zelensky listens but criticizes plan. During meeting, air raid alarm - Russian missiles hit Ukrainian cities. Delegation goes to shelters. Zelensky: "Russia shows what it thinks of African peace by bombing while you're here".
In Moscow (June 17): Putin rejects plan. Demands recognition of occupied territories as "reality". Condescending attitude toward African leaders.
Why it failed:
- Plan too vague on territorial issue
- No real pressure on Russia
- Coordination with Russian attack on Kyiv undermines credibility (coincidence or message?)
- Africa divided: some pro-Russian countries, others neutral
Impact: Zero. Initiative demonstrates that without pressure on Russia, peace impossible.
Pope Francis appoints Zuppi. Focus: Ukrainian children, prisoners.
On May 20, 2023, Pope Francis sends Cardinal Matteo Zuppi on peace mission to Ukraine. First significant Vatican diplomatic initiative since war began.
Participants: Card. Zuppi (President Italian Episcopal Conference), Ukrainian and Russian government representatives.
Journey: Zuppi visits Kyiv (June 5-6), Moscow (June 28-29), Washington (July), Beijing (September).
Stated objectives:
- Facilitate prisoner exchange
- Organize repatriation of children deported by Russia
- Open humanitarian channel
- Explore peace dialogue possibilities
In Kyiv: Meeting with Zelensky, religious authorities, orphanage visit. Zelensky appreciates efforts but reiterates: peace only with Russian troop withdrawal.
In Moscow: Talks with Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister). Russia accepts dialogue on humanitarian issues but refuses discussion on troop withdrawal.
Concrete results:
- Facilitated exchange of some prisoners (limited numbers)
- No progress on deported children (19,000+ according to Ukraine)
- No rapprochement on political issues
Assessment: Humanitarian mission with limited success. Vatican maintains neutrality but this prevents substantial results. Russia uses Vatican dialogue to appear open while continuing war.
Document "China's Position". Criticized for not demanding Russian withdrawal.
On February 24, 2023, exactly one year after invasion, China publishes document "Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" (12 points).
Participants: Chinese Foreign Ministry.
The 12 points:
1. Respect sovereignty of all countries
2. Abandon Cold War mentality
3. Ceasefire
4. Resume negotiations
5. Resolve humanitarian crisis
6. Protect civilians and prisoners of war
7. Nuclear plant safety
8. Reduce strategic risks
9. Facilitate grain exports
10. Stop unilateral sanctions
11. Stability of industrial chains
12. Post-conflict reconstruction
Position: China presents itself as neutral mediator. Doesn't condemn Russian invasion. Doesn't mention troop withdrawal or Ukrainian territorial integrity.
Ukraine reaction: Skeptical. Zelensky says "respecting sovereignty means respecting 1991 borders, including Crimea".
Western reaction: Rejected. USA and EU say plan favors Russia by allowing it to keep occupied territories.
Follow-up: March 2023, Xi Jinping visits Putin in Moscow. No concrete progress. Plan ignored by all.
Assessment: Chinese attempt to position itself as global power. Failed because too vague and too favorable to Russia.
Grain export agreement brokered by Turkey and UN. Russia withdrew July 2023.
On July 22, 2022, agreement signed for Ukrainian grain export through Black Sea. UN and Turkey mediation.
Problem: Russia blocks Ukrainian ports since February 24, 25 million tons of grain blocked. Global food crisis, prices skyrocketing. Ukraine is one of world's largest grain exporters.
Agreement:
- Opening safe maritime corridor from 3 Ukrainian ports (Odessa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhny)
- Joint coordination center in Istanbul (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, UN)
- Ship inspections to ensure no weapons
- Guarantee no attacks on ships
- Initial duration: 120 days, renewable
Operation: From August 1, 2022 to July 17, 2023, 1,002 ships departed with 32.9 million tons of grain to 45 countries. Global food prices drop 23%.
End of agreement: July 17, 2023, Russia withdraws unilaterally. Stated reasons: "West doesn't respect part of agreement on Russian fertilizers". Real reason: Russia wants to use grain blockade as diplomatic leverage.
After withdrawal:
- Russia attacks Ukrainian port infrastructure with missiles
- Ukraine opens unilateral "humanitarian corridor" (August 2023)
- Exports reduced but continue via Danube and Romania
Assessment: Partial success. Prevented global famine for one year, but Russia used grain as weapon.
NATO adopts new Strategic Concept defining Russia as "most significant threat".
On June 29, 2022, NATO approves new Strategic Concept defining Russia as "most significant and direct threat". Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine announced. Strengthening of collective defense.
Strategic Concept 2022: First update since 2010. Russia defined as "most significant and direct threat to allies' security".
Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP): Non-lethal aid, troop training, cyber support, security sector reforms.
Collective defense: Increase permanently deployed troops in Eastern Europe from 4,000 to 40,000.
Finland and Sweden: NATO membership process begins (completed 2023-2024).
Istanbul Communiqué with guarantees framework. Failed after Bucha.
On March 29, 2022, after one month of war, direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations are held in Istanbul. These are the most advanced talks since invasion began.
Participants: Ukrainian (Podolyak, Arakhamia) and Russian (Medinsky) delegations. Turkish presence (Erdogan) as mediator.
Ukrainian proposal: Permanent neutrality of Ukraine with security guarantees from USA, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Poland, Canada. No NATO, but guaranteed military assistance in case of aggression.
Russian demands: Recognition of Crimea, independence of Donbass, demilitarization of Ukraine, no foreign troops, no military exercises without guarantors' consent.
Crucial moment: Russia announces reduction of military operations near Kyiv "to build confidence". On March 30, Russian troops begin withdrawal from northern Ukraine.
Why they failed:
- April 2: Discovery of Bucha massacre (hundreds of civilians killed by Russians)
- Ukraine breaks off negotiations: impossible to negotiate after war crimes
- Boris Johnson visits Kyiv (April 9), encourages resistance
- Discovery of atrocities in Irpin, Mariupol
Debate: Some argue agreement was close. Others say Russia used talks to buy time and reposition troops for Donbass offensive.
Never resumed: Istanbul remains last serious attempt at direct negotiation before 2025.
NATO condemns invasion and announces massive military support.
On March 24, 2022, first NATO summit after the February 24 invasion. Allies strongly condemn Russian aggression and announce shipment of heavy weapons to Ukraine. NATO presence on eastern flank is strengthened.
Key decisions:
- NATO Response Force activation for first time
- 4 new battle groups (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia)
- Eastern flank air defense strengthening
- Increased naval presence
Ukraine support: Air defense systems, Javelin, NLAW, medical equipment.
Impact: First step toward massive NATO rearmament and prolonged military support.
Council approves the Strategic Compass, an action plan to strengthen EU security and defence policy by 2030.
On 21 March 2022, the Council formally approved the Strategic Compass, an EU action plan to strengthen security and defence policy by 2030.
Adopted amid the return of large-scale war in Europe, the Compass sets objectives across crisis management, resilience, capability development and partnerships.
European Council condemns invasion and launches European Peace Facility for weapons.
On March 10-11, 2022, two weeks after invasion, European Council meets in Versailles. Strongly condemns Russian aggression and decides to use European Peace Facility to provide weapons to Ukraine - first time in EU history. Initiates discussions on energy independence from Russia.
EU freezes $300bn Russian assets and excludes banks from SWIFT.
On February 26, 2022, two days after invasion, EU and G7 announce freezing of Russian Central Bank assets and exclusion of major Russian banks from SWIFT system.
Frozen assets: About $300 billion ($210 billion in EU, mainly in Euroclear Belgium).
Impact: Russia loses access to half of its foreign reserves. International payment system blocked.
Historical precedent: First time central bank reserves frozen on this scale.
During Russian military buildup. Did not prevent invasion.
On June 16, 2021, first Biden-Putin meeting in Geneva, first USA-Russia summit since Biden's election.
Participants: Joe Biden (US President), Vladimir Putin (Russian President). 3.5 hours of talks.
Topics discussed:
- Cyber-attacks and ransomware
- Electoral interference
- Human rights (Navalny, opposition repression)
- Ukraine and Minsk II
- Strategic stability and arms control
- Climate
On Ukraine: Biden reiterates US support for Ukrainian territorial integrity. Putin states Ukraine must implement Minsk II. No progress.
Concrete results:
- Agreement to resume dialogue on strategic stability (nuclear)
- US and Russian ambassadors to return to respective capitals
- Working groups on cyber-security
Tone: "Stable and predictable" (Biden's words). Not cordial but professional. Biden describes Putin as "bright, tough and worthy adversary".
8 months later: On February 24, 2022, Russia invades Ukraine on large scale. All dialogues interrupted. Geneva summit produced no lasting results.
Regulation 2020/2092 creates a mechanism to protect the EU budget when breaches of the rule of law in a member state risk affecting financial management.
On 16 December 2020, the EU adopted Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2092, establishing a general regime of conditionality to protect the Union budget.
The mechanism allows the EU to take measures (such as suspending payments) where breaches of rule-of-law principles in a member state affect or seriously risk affecting the sound financial management of the EU budget.
The EU adopts restrictive measures against officials linked to the crackdown after the 2020 presidential election.
On 2 October 2020, the EU adopted restrictive measures against 44 individuals identified as responsible for repression and election falsification following Belarus’ 2020 presidential election.
The measures included travel bans and asset freezes, signalling a shift from political statements to formal coercive instruments.
Impact: a sustained EU sanctions track on Belarus that later expanded, linking internal repression to broader European security concerns.
Council adopts the first ever restrictive measures under the EU cyber sanctions regime against individuals and entities linked to major cyber-attacks.
On 30 July 2020, the Council imposed the first sanctions under the EU cyber sanctions framework, targeting individuals and entities responsible for or involved in significant cyber-attacks.
The decision operationalised the 2019 regime and signalled that the EU would use CFSP instruments to deter cyber operations as part of its broader hybrid-threat posture.
Council creates a legal framework to impose targeted restrictive measures in response to significant cyber-attacks threatening the EU or its member states.
On 17 May 2019, the Council established a framework enabling the EU to impose targeted restrictive measures (sanctions) to deter and respond to cyber-attacks that constitute an external threat to the EU or its member states.
The move extended EU sanctions policy into the cyber domain and later enabled the first designations under the regime.
Germany orders four Russian diplomats to leave in a coordinated Western response to the Salisbury nerve-agent attack.
On 26 March 2018, Germany announced the expulsion of four Russian diplomats after the poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, UK.
The move formed part of a broader, coordinated response by multiple European states and partners, aimed at signalling consequences for suspected state-linked covert operations on European territory.
Impact: a diplomatic escalation that reinforced the framing of such incidents as hybrid threats rather than isolated criminal cases.
Council adopts the decision establishing PESCO, a permanent framework for deeper EU defence cooperation among participating member states.
On 11 December 2017, the Council adopted the decision establishing Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), with participating member states committing to closer cooperation on defence capabilities, investment and operational readiness.
PESCO marked a step change in EU defence integration, creating a standing framework for joint projects and capability development.
EU adopts Regulation 2016/1624 creating the European Border and Coast Guard, strengthening Frontex and integrated border management.
On 14 September 2016, the EU adopted Regulation (EU) 2016/1624 on the European Border and Coast Guard.
The regulation strengthened the mandate of Frontex and formalised an integrated approach to external border management, including increased operational support and monitoring mechanisms, in response to the 2015–2016 migration crisis.
EU adopts Directive 2016/681 on the use of PNR data for preventing and investigating terrorism and serious crime.
On 27 April 2016, the EU adopted Directive (EU) 2016/681 on the use of Passenger Name Record (PNR) data.
The directive set rules for collecting and processing airline passenger data for the prevention, detection, investigation and prosecution of terrorist offences and serious crime, balancing security objectives with data protection requirements.
EU and Turkey agree measures to curb irregular migration via the Aegean route and expand resettlement and funding mechanisms.
On 18 March 2016, EU leaders and Turkey agreed the EU–Turkey Statement, a political deal aimed at reducing irregular migration from Turkey to the Greek islands.
Core elements included:
- Returns of new irregular arrivals from Greece to Turkey under specific conditions
- A 1-for-1 resettlement scheme for Syrians (from Turkey to the EU)
- Additional EU funding for refugees in Turkey and steps on visa liberalisation benchmarks
Impact: the statement became a central pillar of EU external border management, and a long-running point of legal and political controversy.
The EU accelerates measures on information sharing, border controls and tackling terrorist financing after 2015 attacks.
On 20 November 2015, the EU Council (Justice and Home Affairs) adopted conclusions to accelerate the implementation of EU counter-terrorism measures.
The package emphasised:
- Information sharing and use of EU databases
- External border controls and travel document security
- Action against terrorist financing
- Work on foreign terrorist fighters and radicalisation
Impact: the conclusions formalised a fast-track agenda that shaped EU internal security cooperation in the years following the 2015 attacks.
After the Paris attacks, France requests aid and assistance from EU partners under Article 42(7).
On 17 November 2015, during the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defence format) in Brussels, France invoked the EU’s mutual assistance clause in Article 42(7) TEU in response to the 13 November Paris attacks.
Unlike NATO Article 5, Article 42(7) is implemented bilaterally: each member state decides how to provide aid and assistance. Ministers expressed unanimous support and readiness to help.
Why it matters: it was the first activation of Article 42(7), setting a precedent for EU solidarity mechanisms in major security crises.
Council adopts Decision 2015/1601 creating a temporary mechanism to relocate asylum seekers from Italy and Greece during the migration crisis.
On 22 September 2015, EU interior ministers adopted Council Decision (EU) 2015/1601 establishing provisional measures in international protection for the benefit of Italy and Greece.
The decision created a temporary relocation mechanism for persons in clear need of international protection, intended to relieve pressure on the EU’s external border states at the peak of the 2015 crisis. It also became a major point of political and legal contestation inside the EU.
European Commission sets out a common framework for managing migration, combining immediate crisis measures with structural reforms.
On 13 May 2015, the European Commission published the European Agenda on Migration (COM/2015/240), outlining both emergency measures (search and rescue, relocation/resettlement proposals, action against smuggling) and longer-term steps on asylum, borders and legal migration.
The agenda framed migration as a shared EU responsibility and set the baseline for the policy debates that followed during the 2015–2016 crisis.
EU External Action Service creates a task force to respond to Russian disinformation campaigns after European Council conclusions (March 2015).
In March 2015, following European Council conclusions, the EU External Action Service set up the East StratCom Task Force to address Russia’s ongoing disinformation campaigns.
The task force became the nucleus of EU efforts to detect, analyse and raise awareness of information manipulation targeting the EU and its neighbourhood.
After 17 hours Package of Measures signed. Never fully implemented.
On February 12, 2015, Minsk II is signed after 17 hours of negotiations in Minsk. Participants: Merkel, Hollande, Putin, Poroshenko (Normandy Format).
Context: After Minsk I failure, in January 2015 Russian-backed separatists launch massive offensive. Fall of Donetsk airport, Battle of Debaltseve. Ukraine risks complete military collapse.
Agreements (13 points):
1. Ceasefire from February 15, 2015
2. Heavy weapons withdrawal (50-140km line)
3. OSCE monitoring with full access
4. Dialogue on local elections according to Ukrainian law
5. Amnesty for combatants
6. Prisoner exchange
7. Humanitarian aid
8. Border control restoration (after local elections)
9. Withdrawal of foreign troops and mercenaries
10. Constitutional reform with decentralization (special status for Donbass)
11-13. Implementation details
Disputed sequence: Kyiv wants border control first, then elections. Russia wants elections first, then border.
Outcome: Ceasefire partially respected for weeks. Fighting continues at Debaltseve until February 18 (thousands of Ukrainian soldiers encircled). Then "frozen" war until 2022 with daily violations. Agreements never fully implemented.
Criticism: Some analysts argue Minsk II froze conflict giving Russia time to prepare 2022 invasion.
First ceasefire in Donbass. Repeatedly violated, led to Minsk II.
On September 5, 2014, in Minsk (Belarus), the first Minsk Protocol is signed to stop the war in Donbass, which began in April 2014.
Participants: Trilateral Format (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) + representatives from Donetsk and Luhansk (recognized as "other participants").
Context: After Crimea annexation (February-March 2014), pro-Russian separatists in Donbass declare "People's Republics" of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR). Ukrainian army responds. At end of August 2014, regular Russian forces enter eastern Ukraine (Battle of Ilovaisk), inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainians.
Main agreements:
1. Immediate ceasefire
2. OSCE monitoring
3. "All for all" prisoner exchange
4. Humanitarian corridors
5. Withdrawal of foreign mercenaries and illegal weapons
6. Special law for temporary self-government in Donetsk and Luhansk regions
7. Local elections
8. Control of Ukraine-Russia border (after elections)
Failure: Ceasefire violated within hours. Fighting continues, especially around Donetsk airport. In January 2015, separatist offensive captures airport. Minsk I collapses completely.
Why it failed: Russia doesn't respect ceasefire, continues sending weapons and troops. "Elections" in separatist zones organized unilaterally (November 2014), not recognized by Kyiv or international community.
Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia create a negotiation format to resolve the Donbass conflict.
On June 6, 2014, on the margins of the 70th anniversary commemorations of the Normandy landings, the leaders of Germany (Merkel), France (Hollande), Ukraine (Poroshenko) and Russia (Putin) meet to discuss the Donbass crisis.
Birth of the format
The Normandy Format becomes the main diplomatic channel for resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Objectives
Negotiate a ceasefire, define a special status for Donbass, guarantee Ukrainian territorial integrity.
Evolution
The format produced the Minsk agreements. Meetings were held until 2019.
European Council adopts a four-pillar strategy (Prevent, Protect, Pursue, Respond) to coordinate EU counter-terrorism policy.
On 30 November 2005, EU leaders endorsed the EU Counter-Terrorism Strategy, built around four objectives: Prevent, Protect, Pursue, and Respond.
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"The strategy became a reference framework for coordinating counter-terrorism across the EU, including information sharing, protection of critical infrastructure, and police/judicial cooperation.
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"Context: it followed the major attacks in Madrid (2004) and London (2005), when member states were under pressure to improve coordination and resilience.
Ukraine renounces nuclear weapons for security assurances. Violated by Russia.
On December 5, 1994, in Budapest, Ukraine, Russia, USA and UK sign the Budapest Memorandum, one of the most important documents for post-Cold War European security.
Context: Ukraine, after independence from USSR in 1991, inherits the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal (approximately 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads and 2,500 tactical nuclear weapons).
Participants: Ukraine (Leonid Kuchma), Russia (Boris Yeltsin), USA (Bill Clinton), UK (John Major).
Agreements:
1. Ukraine renounces nuclear arsenal and transfers all weapons to Russia
2. Russia, USA and UK guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity and independence
3. They commit not to use force or threats against Ukraine
4. No economic pressure to influence Ukrainian policy
Implementation: By 1996, Ukraine transfers all nuclear weapons to Russia. Becomes non-nuclear state.
Violation: On February 20, 2014, Russia annexes Crimea, directly violating guarantees. On February 24, 2022, full-scale invasion begins, completely demolishing the memorandum. Ukraine, denuclearized in exchange for security guarantees, finds itself invaded precisely by those who had guaranteed its security.