Conflict progression
Interactive timeline with data on human losses, territories and costs
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has gone through several phases since February 2022:
- Initial phase (Feb-Mar 2022): Rapid Russian advance on multiple fronts, occupation up to 27% of Ukrainian territory. Heavy civilian (over 4,300) and military losses.
- Consolidation (Apr-Jun 2022): Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, focus on Donbass. Occupied territory stabilized at 20%.
- Ukrainian counteroffensive (Jul-Sep 2022): Significant reconquests, territory reduced to 18%.
- War of attrition (Oct 2022 - 2023): Positional stalemate with high human (over 500,000 total casualties) and financial costs.
- Russian offensive 2024-2025: Marginal gains (from 18% to 19.5%), with intensification of infrastructure attacks.
Data based on US/EU intelligence estimates, UN and ISW. Russian losses estimated higher due to high-cost tactics; Western aid crucial for Ukraine.
Key Ukrainian successes: In autumn 2022, Ukraine launched successful offensives, reconquering ~12,000 km² in the Kharkiv region (September) and forcing Russian withdrawal from Kherson (November), reducing occupied territory from 27% to 18%. These operations, supported by Western intelligence and NATO weapons, inflicted heavy Russian losses (over 50,000 killed and wounded), demonstrating Ukrainian resilience despite numerical inferiority.
Current situation
Occupied territories, refugees and human costs
As of December 23, 2025, Russia controls about 19.5% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea (annexed 2014) and parts of Donbass.
- Military losses: US/EU estimates: Russia ~1,020,000 (killed/wounded); Ukraine ~650,000.
- Civilian victims: Over 14,500 documented (UN), real numbers higher.
- Refugees: Over 6 million Ukrainians in Europe (EU/UNHCR); 4 million internally displaced.
- Costs: Russia spent ~$390 bn; US aid $165 bn, EU $200 bn.
Interactive map shows stable front lines, with marginal Russian gains in 2025 (+1.5%).
Future scenarios
Peace, negotiations and possible developments
In recent weeks, diplomatic pressure to initiate negotiations over the war in Ukraine has intensified. There is no formal peace process, but growing efforts to force a rapid settlement, even without shared conditions.
Russia’s position remains unchanged. Moscow continues to reject any agreement that does not explicitly validate territorial gains and Ukraine’s strategic neutralization, dismissing proposals that fall short of these objectives.
At the same time, U.S. domestic politics introduce an additional acceleration factor ahead of the March elections. Requests advanced by Donald Trump toward Kyiv largely mirror Russian demands. An end to hostilities would lower the political cost of selectively restoring economic relations, aligning with converging interests.
For the European Union, territorial concessions to an aggressor state are unacceptable and set a dangerous precedent. This explains why several European governments are intervening to prevent negotiations from turning into a de facto Ukrainian surrender, generating friction with both sides.
The current diplomatic push reflects a race against the political calendar rather than a decisive shift on the battlefield.